The influencing factors of satisfaction and lending intention in online lending investment: an empirical study based on the Chinese market

This paper develops a platform‐based influencing factors model which considers value perception, risk prevention measure, non‐default experience, trust and incentive gap, to better examine the impact of platforms on investors’ satisfaction and lending intention based on the Chinese market. The results reveal that the first four factors positively influence the satisfaction of the investors, while the incentive gap has a negative impact, and there is a positive association between investors’ satisfaction and lending intention. Some specific features of China’s online lending market are identified, which provides valuable insights for online lending platforms and the government.     

Best classification algorithms in peer-to-peer lending

A proper credit scoring technique is vital to the long-term success of all kinds of financial institutions, including peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. The main contribution of our paper is the robust ranking of 10 different classification techniques based on a real-world P2P lending data set. Our data set comes from the Lending Club covering the 2009–2013 period, which contains 212,252 records and 23 different variables. Unlike other researchers, we use a data sample which contains the final loan resolution for all loans. We built our research using a 5-fold cross-validation method and 6 different classification performance measurements. Our results show that logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and linear discriminant analysis are the three best algorithms based on the Lending Club data. Conversely, we identify k-nearest neighbors and classification and regression tree as the two worst classification methods.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

Some Potential Linkages for Input-Output Analysis with Flow-of-Funds

Three major, interrelated accounting statements, at the frontiers of quantitative economic analysis, are three interrelated systems, namely: (1) National income and product accounts (NIPA), (2) The input-output tableaux, (IO), and (3) flow-of- funds accounts (FF). The third-mentioned system is somewhat less available and used in only limited areas of macroeconomic analysis. This paper is mainly concerned with use of FF accounting systems. This system shows where financial resources originate, and where they go in support of real capital formation. In this respect, interest rates and other market-based financial rates are of key importance. While much macroeconomic analysis is based on the rates that fit the yield curve, showing the interest rate structure over various maturities of debt associated with a given degree of risk. In contrast, the FF accounts throw light on the whole spectrum of interest rates, across maturities and debt qualities. For example, in analysis of the real estate market and funding of capital formation there, it is important to have a full understanding of the course of mortgage rates of different maturities and qualities. In short, it is necessary to develop a full appreciation of supply and demand forces in the mortgage market, which often is not obviously related to movements of the operative rate for monetary policy, such as very short-term inter bank rates or call money rates. This paper attempts to provide material from the flow-of-funds accounts that would make it possible to analyze the movement of relevant mortgage rates or whatever other rates are needed to understand the financing of capital formation in real estate.     

绩效与不足:建国初期农村信用合作社的借贷活动的历史考察——以鄂湘赣三省为中心

农村信用合作社是建国初期农村金融体系的重要组成部分，它的产生是新中国乡村借贷关系转型和现代化的标志之一。信用社借贷有利于农户的生产生活经营，推动了农村经济的恢复与发展，但其也存在一定的缺陷。     

Collusion and group lending with adverse selection

In an environment with correlated returns, this paper characterizes optimal lending contracts when the bank faces adverse selection and borrowers have limited liability. Group lending contracts are shown to be dominated by revelation mechanisms which do not use the ex post observability of the partners' performances. However, when collusion between borrowers under complete information is allowed, group lending contracts are optimal in the class of simple revelation mechanisms (which elicit only the borrower's own private information) and remain useful with extended revelation mechanisms.     

中小企业关系型贷款的价值与发展对策

关系型贷款是一种有助于增进银企双方价值的金融中介活动.对于中小企业来说,关系型贷款是缓解银企间信息不对称、改善企业融资状况的有效途径之一.我国应大力发展中小企业关系型贷款.     

资本约束对信贷扩张及经济增长的影响:分析框架和典型案例

监管当局的最低资本要求改变了传统货币政策传导机制。本文从银行信贷渠道和银行资本渠道两方面并借助简化的商业银行行为决策模型考察资本约束的信贷扩张效应,利用CC-LM模型讨论资本约束对经济增长的影响。本文认为,在资本短缺情况下,严格资本监管将导致贷款供给下降,进而对经济增长产生影响;1990年代美国、日本出现的信贷紧缩部分应归因于1988年资本协议的实施,监管当局和货币当局必须重视资本充足率监管的宏观经济效应。     

What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending

We study the transmission of negative interest rates to bank lending around an unexpected policy rate cut into deep negative territory by the Swiss National Bank (−0.75%). We exploit a rich data set on transaction-level corporate loans matched with bank balance sheet data. We find that banks more affected by negative interest rates offer looser lending terms and lend more than other banks. This result is consistent with the risk-taking channel, where a lower policy rate spurs bank risk-taking to maintain profits. The result implies that, even in such deep negative territory, the reversal rate has not yet been hit.